AI4Science 再填新成员：谷歌推出天气模型MetNet-3 已落地相关产品、谷歌天气预报模型GraphCast登刊Science —— AI天气预报大模型

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PS. 要知道，华为公司的最高学术成果就是AI天气预报，也就是盘古大模型之天气预报模型，使用AI技术解决传统Science问题是AI领域的最新突破，Google继华为之后同样在同一领域方向上发表世界顶级成果，为AI4Science再填新的一员。

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论文地址:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi2336

《Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting》

Editor’s summary

The numerical models used to predict weather are large, complex, and computationally demanding and do not learn from past weather patterns. Lam et al. introduced a machine learning–based method that has been trained directly from reanalysis data of past atmospheric conditions. In this way, the authors were able to quickly predict hundreds of weather variables globally up to 10 days in advance and at high resolution. Their predictions were more accurate than those of traditional weather models in 90% of tested cases and displayed better severe event prediction for tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. —H. Jesse Smith

Abstract

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy but does not directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. Here, we introduce GraphCast, a machine learning–based method trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables for the next 10 days at 0.25° resolution globally in under 1 minute. GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclone tracking, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.