TEXT 87

Fund management基金管理

 

A Miller's tale

米勒传奇(陈继龙编译)

Dec 7th 2006

From The Economist print edition

The winning streak of a super-investor comes to an end

一位投资大师的连胜势头终结。

(1)BEATING the S&P 500 index over one year could be put down to[1] luck. But doing so 15 times in a row is about as likely as Elvis Presley landing a spaceship in the grounds of Buckingham Palace. So the success of Bill Miller, a fund manager at the Baltimore-based Legg Mason, has been a conundrum[2] for those who believe in efficient markets.

在某一年战胜SP500指数可能是运气使然,但连续15年都保持不败,这种可能性大概就跟猫王埃尔维斯·普雷斯利驾驶宇宙飞船降落到白金汉宫差不多。因此对于那些信奉有效市场理论(有效市场理论认为市场价格已经包含了所有的可以得到的信息。依靠察看过去的信息或以往价格变化的形式来赚钱是不可能的)的人而言,巴尔的摩莱森·梅森(Legg Mason)公司的基金经理比尔·米勒的成功是个难解的谜。

The good news for the doubters is that his streak[3] is set to come to an end this year. With a month to go, his Value fund had made a return of just 3.5%, well behind the S&P's 12.6%.(2)Mr Miller admits to a few mistakes, including failing to own enough energy stocks, buying into housebuilding shares too early and suffering disappointing returns on some of his big internet picks[4], like Yahoo!.

米勒的成功之路从今年开始滑向终点,这对那些对米勒抱怀疑态度的人来说是个好消息。现在距离年终只剩下一个月,而他的“价值型”基金仅取得3.5%的收益率,远远落后于SP的12.6%。米勒承认犯了一些错误,其中包括未能拿到足够的能源股,过早买进住房股以及其持有的部分互联网精选股(如雅虎)收益未能达到预期。

How does one explain the success of super-investors, such as Mr Miller or Warren Buffett, when so few fund managers beat the index? One trait of good long-term investors seems to be that they rarely trade; it takes them several years, rather than a few months, to turn over their portfolios. (3) A lot of investors trade frantically and achieve nothing but higher costs; Mr Miller changes just 15% of his portfolio every year.

在一个很少有基金经理可以击败SP指数的时代,为什么像米勒和沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资大师可以取得成功呢?优秀的长线投资者似乎有一个共同特征,就是他们很少买卖股票;他们的基金周转时间不是几个月而是几年。许多投资者都忙于抢购或急于抛售,结果除了成本增高(基金净值增高)外一无所获,而米勒的投资组合每年的换手率仅为15%。

Failure at his 16th attempt does not seem to have dampened his spirit. (4)After all, since the market started to rebound in August, he has been beating the index once more. And he is ultra-bullish about the outlook for 2007, saying that 15-25% returns from America's stockmarket are “not [an] unreasonable scenario”. Indeed, just as when the market bottomed in 2002, he is willing to borrow money to buy shares. (5)With a record like his, it takes guts[5] to bet against him.

未能第16次超越SP指数似乎并没有让他为之神伤。毕竟,8月份股市甫一反弹,他便再一次力压SP指数,并且将这一表现一直持续到现在。而且,他大为看好2007年的前景,认为从美国股市中赢得15%~25%的收益率“并非不切实际的幻想”。的确,就像2002年股市跳水时一样,就算是借钱购买股票他也心甘情愿。有他这样的记录,向他挑战还真需要掂量自己一下。

 [QUIZ]

英译汉(将划线部分英文翻译成中文):

[NOTES](LONGMAN)

1. put down to  to think that something is caused by something else归因于

2. conundrum n. a confusing and difficult problem难题

3. streak . a period of time during which you continue to be successful or to fail(连续失败或成功的)某个时期

4. pick n. the best things in a group上品,最佳部分

5. guts n. courage 勇气

7.25 9figting!的更多相关文章

  1. 一文洞悉Python必备50种算法!资深大牛至少得掌握25种!

    一.环境需求 二.怎样使用 三.本地化 3.1扩展卡尔曼滤波本地化 3.2无损卡尔曼滤波本地化 3.3粒子滤波本地化 3.4直方图滤波本地化 四.映射 4.1高斯网格映射 4.2光线投射网格映射 4. ...

  2. 7.25 11figting!

    TEXT 76 Start of the long march 而今迈步从头越(陈继龙编译) Nov 16th 2006 | BEIJING AND HONG KONG From The Econom ...

  3. 7.25 8figting!

    TEXT 87 Fund management基金管理   A Miller's tale 米勒传奇(陈继龙编译) Dec 7th 2006 From The Economist print edit ...

  4. 7.25 10figting!

    TEXT 88 European utilities欧洲公用事业 Power struggles 能源之争(陈继龙编译) Nov 30th 2006 From The Economist print ...

  5. 7.25 7figting!

    TEXT 82 Proton 马来西亚宝腾汽车 A fork in the road 何去何从?(陈继龙编译) Nov 30th 2006 | HONG KONG From The Economist ...

  6. 7.25 6figting!

    TEXT 82 Proton 马来西亚宝腾汽车 A fork in the road 何去何从?(陈继龙编译) Nov 30th 2006 | HONG KONG From The Economist ...

  7. 7.25 1figting!

    TEXT 97 Health consumerism 保护消费者健康权益 The wellness boom 健康产业飞速发展(陈继龙编译) Jan 4th 2007 | NEW YORK From ...

  8. 历时25天,我的博客(www.ityouknow.com)终于又活了过来

    时间回到2016年的7月10号,那时候我刚刚开始正式在博客园写博客,博客园的交流氛围很好,但鉴于博客园古老的界面,同时计划创建一个自己独立的博客,毕竟自己的博客怎么折腾都行. 那时候正在研究 Spri ...

  9. 愚人节老板发话了,免费送书 + 免费入驻Java知识星球!!

    愚人节快乐,今天的活动很重磅! 1.免费送5本重量级技术书籍,不骗人,小程序随机抽奖送出哦! 2.免费进星球,哈哈不可能,愚人节快乐!不过今天有重大优惠,见下文! 活动一:免费送出5本重量级书籍 赠书 ...

随机推荐

  1. POJ 2823 单调队列入门水题

    最最基础的单调队列题目.一个单增一个单减.还是可以借此好好理解一下单调队列的. #include <stdio.h> #include <string.h> #include ...

  2. vue router动态路由

    <div id="#app"> <router-link to="/user/header">路由1</router-link&g ...

  3. poj 3744 概率dp 快速幂 注意排序 难度:2

    /* Scout YYF I Time Limit: 1000MS   Memory Limit: 65536K Total Submissions: 5304   Accepted: 1455 De ...

  4. Backbone设计思路和关键源码分析

    一. Backbone的江湖地位: backbone作为一个老牌js框架为大规模前端开发提供了新的开发思路:前端MVC模式,这个模式也是前端开发演变过程中的一个重要里程碑,也为MVVM和Redux等开 ...

  5. .Net脱壳工具 de4dot参数说明/简易教程

    de4dot  /? 帮助原文 使用方法 de4dot "d:\xx.exe" -p xc -p xc 指定壳类型 , 这里是xc,表示Xenocode壳.这样会在exe的相同目录 ...

  6. python 机器学习库 —— featuretools(自动特征工程)

    文档:https://docs.featuretools.com/#minute-quick-start 所谓自动特征工程,即是将人工特征工程的过程自动化.以 featuretools 为代表的自动特 ...

  7. ECUST 12级 Practise

    http://acm.hust.edu.cn/vjudge/contest/view.action?cid=26399#overview 果断开小号水过 CodeForces 58A #include ...

  8. [BZOJ5312]冒险

    bzoj CSAcademy description 一个序列\(a_i\),支持区间与一个数,区间或一个数,求区间最大值. \(n,m\le2\times10^5\) sol 线段树每个节点上维护区 ...

  9. 洛谷P4197 Peaks(Kruskal重构树 主席树)

    题意 题目链接 往后中文题就不翻译了qwq Sol 又是码农题..出题人这是强行把Kruskal重构树和主席树拼一块了啊.. 首先由于给出的限制条件是<=x,因此我们在最小生成树上走一定是最优的 ...

  10. FastAdmin 的 url 有一个 ref=addtabs 是怎么添加的?

    FastAdmin 的 url 有一个 ref=addtabs 是怎么添加的? 在使用 FastAdmin 时你会发现 url 中有一个 ref=addtabs . 以下是 Karson 的解释 这个 ...